SPX Hedge Trade
Good day Insiders, Wishing you all a very happy and prosperous New Year! What a wild ride 2018 was, considering where we opened and closed it was a rollercoaster, to say the least. Now here in 2019, I have a prediction for the market, and it’s quite bullish but it is not without volatility and a few scares. At the time of this update we are hovering around 2506 in the SPX, could we go higher, yes, are we going higher? who knows really. All I can say is that we saw an interim low on the 26th of December 2018 and from there I had hypothesized that we would rally into the end of the year. Here is 2019, we opened the day in a sea of red and there has been some buying since. I will express my opinion here and say that we are likely going to see a lower low (than the 26th) in mid to late January and then further consolidation until likely spring of this year. It is with this opinion that we are getting our hedges in order to protect our long positions from being hit and our capital depreciating.
We are going 20 points wide (2480-2460) and requiring a 1% move in the SPX for our hedge to begin yielding a profit.
Risk & Reward
Our trade will use $6,600 to give ample protection to the downside. For those position sizing, we ideally look to use between 5-7% of the portfolio to place our hedge.